180625_다우 200선 이탈...a bearish turn or a buy signal?

The Dow closed below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level, for the first time since June 2016.

 - 180625, CNBC

The Dow rebounded slightly in the final hour of trading after Peter Navarro, a top trade adviser to President Donald Trump, said that investment restrictions against China and other countries are not immediately forthcoming and that the market was overreacting. 

The Dow's run above 200-day moving average is the third lengthiest.

 - 180625, MarketWatch

the summer(June 27) of 2016 : the U.K. vote to exit from the European Union

The streak of 501 consecutive trading days above the 200-day moving average is the Dow's third longest since 1952.

The only longer stretchers were a 652-day run that ended in May 1956 and a 715-day stretch that ended in October 1987. 

This hit to the Dow could be triggering a buy signal.

 - 180625, MarketWatch

One reason to avoid reacting in a knee-jerk way is to reflect on what happened the last time the 200-day moving average was broken on the downside, in early February. In the wake of that break, the market rallied strongly. 

You would have made more money over the last 25 years by treating the braking of the 200-day moving average as a reason to increase stock exposure rather than reduce it. 

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You can no longer trust the 200-day moving average as a stock-market indicator.

 - 180213, MarketWatch

<So What?>

200선 이탈 

- 기술적으로 약세장 전환 신호(였으나)로 해석. 최근엔(다우 : 브렉시트, S&P500 2009년 후) 매수 적기

- 그럼 지금이 다우 저점 부근? 그건 모를 일. 그럴 수도 있고, 아닐 수도 있을 뿐. 

- anyway 다우든 S&P500이든 그간의 상승(가격과 기간)을 고려했을 때, 추가 조정(가격 또는 기간)이 나와도 전혀 이상할 게 없는 차트.

- 그나마 가능성이 있는 건, "지금이 저점이다"라는 소리가 나오는 한 저점은 아직 멀었을 가능성.